The NPT community has not so far dealt with a flagrant breach of the treaty, which they will now face in the next review conference. All the ideas on nuclear disarmament floated so far including President Obama’s, revolve around arms control, with nothing concrete in terms of disarmament. No weapon which is deemed legitimate is likely to be given up. The first step towards disarmament is the delegitimisation of a weapon as with chemical weapons in the Geneva Protocol 1925, which in turn led to their outlawing in 1993. The delegitimisation of nuclear weapons should start with a ‘no first use’ agreement among the nuclear weapon states, both within and outside NPT.

Unless India strongly advocates such a move, proclaimed it as doctrine, thereby helping reverse the present trend of maintaining the legitimacy of such weapons, the inevitability of other nations following the North Korean example cannot be discounted.

There will be concerns in certain quarters in India that this development may lead to the US making efforts to get the CTBT ratified and brought into force. That could happen, even though it might make nations which have nuclear ambitions to stay out of the treaty in the hope of following the North Korean example. On the other hand, weapon lobbies could step up pressure on the US administration, arguing that “rogue” states like North Korea highlight the need for US to develop bunker-buster bombs and reliable renewed warheads. This argument may also hinge on the degree of cooperation the US gets from China in dealing with North Korea.

... contd.