Whatever the challenges facing President Obama, the fact is that the US is not in a position to influence North Korea’s future conduct. That depends entirely on China, the only country with some clout on Pyongyang. China is interested in ensuring that there is no instability in North Korea that could cause refugees to cross the border. Nor would it, perhaps, like the present regime in Pyongyang replaced in near future. In these circumstances the initial advantage appears to be with North Korea and initiating constructive engagement without a loss of face vis-à-vis Japan and South Korea is going to tax the ingenuity of both President Obama and Secretary Clinton. Japan has announced the setting up of a taskforce in the prime minister’s office. This time their reassessment of their security future will have to take into account the limitations of US extended deterrence against states like North Korea.

The North Korean test is the challenge to the entire international community, from an unprincipled, proliferating and dictatorial regime. The world will pay a heavy price if it is not effectively countered.

The writer is a senior defence analyst