The issue of India being entrapped into a bilateral commitment in an agreement with the US on nuclear cooperation not to carry out nuclear tests has proved to be a flash in the pan. The deal is very complex and the exercise of exceptionalising India from a treaty — which the entire international community excepting three out of the 191 nations, in its wisdom extended unconditionally and indefinitely — has no precedent. Such negotiations would need more than normal diplomatic confidentiality. It is therefore no surprise that the issue of India’s commitment not to carry out tests, featuring in the American draft of the Indo-US nuclear cooperation agreement, had been addressed by the ministry of external affairs two weeks before the preliminary draft (no longer current) became public. However, this is an appropriate time to discuss the probability of the current, somewhat tenuous test ban regime breaking down and India being compelled to resort to testing again.

Out of the five recognised nuclear weapon powers, three — UK, France and Russia — have signed and ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The US Senate has rejected the ratification of the treaty while China, presumably keeping a watch on the US, has not yet ratified it. If either resumes testing, then others are bound to follow. This possibility will be weighing with the US and China even though they have not ratified the treaty. Every once in a while reports emanate from the US about Congress voting funds for further research on nuclear weapons. A bunker-busting bomb is frequently mentioned as a near-term possibility. But resumption of tests would need congressional approval. It is therefore very unlikely that the world will be taken by surprise by an American test. There will be some notice and other nations will have time to react. One cannot, however, assume that in spite of these considerations the US would not dump the CTBT into the dustbin and go ahead and test. It may be recalled that the US annulled the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty after 30 years, though the annulment was preceded by negotiations with Russia and was done with its reluctant acquiescence.

... contd.