But, in defence of the government, Olmert is not seeking re-election, Barak is way down in the opinion polls, and only Livni and Netanyahu are direct adversaries; yet, apparently, the last two were only “consulted” before Cast Lead, and the decision came from Olmert and Barak, the PM and defence minister respectively. Further, a poll for the Jerusalem Post conducted after Cast Lead began, showed that Likud and Labour both gained, with Likud up from 27 to 29 and Labour from 14 to 15. Kadima, meanwhile, was down from 27 to 23. If this poll were definitive (it is only one of many, some of which even show Kadima climbing back to 27), it would mean Cast Lead was translating into popularity for Labour, since its chief, Barak, is the defence minister. But Labour would still not lead a government. So, cui bono, who benefits? Not necessarily those who declared “war”. But it would be ironic if Kadima must lose to prove its innocence. The next week should show if it has salvaged its chances.

In Israel’s overtly democratic, multi-party and chaotic set-up, governments are almost always coalitions — often led by more than one of the major parties. The proportional representation system ensures that no party is in a position to form a government on its own, and it also gives disproportionate power to fringe groups — such as the religious parties. The success of Cast Lead would not only determine public perceptions, but also influence decisions of the fringe parties on the right. Wars have interfered with Knesset elections earlier — most recently in 1996 when Hamas bombings between the

... contd.