Intifadas saw Shimon Peres lose to Netanyahu, and most famously in 1973, when the Yom Kippur War delayed scheduled elections.

And it isn’t Kadima alone being accused of political motives. The Likud has traditionally benefited from a climate of insecurity; whether it’s the US or Israel or India, terror is believed to push voters towards the right. Kadima wants to keep the centrist votes and take away the rightist ones. Likud wants to keep the rightist votes and take away the centrist ones. Labour wants to take away leftist, centrist and some rightist votes. It is Labour that is in a bind — persisting and winning the war would get it votes of the last two denominations, but ending it immediately would win votes from its erstwhile ally Meretz and other parties on the left. Barak may be the defence minister, but Livni can tell Likud voters that, with the experience of two wars, she’s now fit enough for the prime minister’s job. The third clock, from all evidence, was crucial to Cast Lead and it isn’t likely to stop before election day this year. But who gets to lead a new coalition then will depend on the other two clocks, and whether Hamas rockets also stop with those two.

sudeep.paul@expressindia.com