There are three different types of drought, not one. There is a meteorological drought, when actual rainfall is deficient (20 per cent below normal) or scanty (60 per cent or more below normal). The Indian Meteorological Department has now declared a deficiency of 29 per cent in the south-west monsoon. Let’s not forget, the IMD was set up after famines in 1866 and 1871. The IMD has now invested in computing power. It has a better model, or so it thinks.

Question No 1: Why is the IMD so terrible at forecasting a meteorological drought? Why do global models perform better, even for India? Should we simply scrap the IMD and outsource forecasting? IISc, Bangalore, should be able to do better.The severity of a drought doesn’t depend only on overall rainfall, but also its spatial and geographical spread. Accordingly, 177 districts have now been declared drought-affected, up from 141 a week ago. These districts are primarily in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Himachal Pradesh, Assam and Manipur. Understandably, drought is more serious for rain-fed agriculture and, usually, drought occurs in Maharashtra, Karnataka (some parts), Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Question No 2: Why are states falling over backwards to declare their districts drought-affected? Is there a drought problem or do states love a good drought because of possible Central assistance?

Second, there is a hydrological drought when there is a depletion of surface water. Lakes, rivers and reservoirs dry up. The Central Water Commission says the water level in reservoirs is 38 per cent of capacity. Comfort levels are at 45 per cent.

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