Yet Mbeki stood firm in Mugabe’s defence. This could not be due to domestic South African pressures; in fact, his behaviour has cost him dearly. Mugabe’s misrule has created a refugee crisis that has strained the South African economy, and led to xenophobic riots. Worst of all, it may have cost Mbeki the leadership of the African National Congress, and damaged his reputation irreparably.

For in its last fractious conclave held in the university town of Polokwane, the ANC voted overwhelmingly to vote to replace Mbeki with Jacob Zuma, in almost every way his opposite: where Mbeki is reserved, an academic with a fussy goatee, and liberal in orientation, Zuma is a former militant whose theme song is an ode to his AK-47, a man of prodigious appetites who has throughout his career been an opportunistic populist. Mbeki’s loss to Zuma was humiliating; further, it led him to fear that Zuma would reverse South Africa’s cautious pro-market tilt, which he viewed as his legacy.

Zuma, supported by the left wing of the ANC’s coalition, had campaigned against Mbeki on widening inequality; but one of the most emotive issues was Mugabe, whom he repeatedly accused Mbeki of favouring. This might appear strange: after all, Zuma, in terms of personality and politics, might be seen as closer to Mugabe than Mbeki — and Zuma had in fact spoken well of his fellow-guerrilla earlier, excusing his policy of land seizures and blaming it on Britain. But his subsequent metamorphosis into Mugabe’s first and harshest critic in the ANC is actually unsurprising.

... contd.