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‘Tightening of monetary policy seems implausible’

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  • Arvind

    The Economic Survey 2008-09 is a professional economist’s wishlist — a bold and comprehensive reform agenda — to put India back into the high-growth orbit. While its principal author Arvind Virmani admits that some of the survey’s prescriptions are theoretical, he is certain India has to bring these critical reforms to the table in a candid interview with Gunjan Pradhan Sinha

    How would you categorise economic reforms for the next four to five years of the UPA government?

    Firstly, there is a contradistinction between long- and short-term fiscal policy. In the medium term, it is important to have fiscal balance and the situation demands fiscal stimulus in the short term. We need to start thinking of elements that will bring us back to the path of fiscal prudence. In the last couple of years, oil shocks and rise in prices have hit the economy. Therefore, second sector that needs reforms is energy. And thirdly, it is the financial sector that needs reforms. FDI and high capital inflows can put us on the growth path quickly. We have enough savings both at domestic and corporate front. The core problem is to figure out how this money can reach the right people.

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    You’ve talked about FDI in multi-brand retail, the Contract Labour Act and retrenchment of labour in factories. What is the economics of all this?

    The government showed interest in building consensus for labour reforms. We have put forth our views where a distinction has been made between the employment element of manufacturing and manufacturing itself.

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