It has been fashionable (and logical) to compare trends in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, two large and politically restless states brimming with thrilling possibilities and a past. Tamil Nadu, in many senses, showed the way. Shortly after 1967 — when the Congress polled about 41 per cent of the vote — there was a precipitous drop in the 1971 assembly elections to about 17 per cent, and the trend continued. It accelerated in the ’80s and ’90s and the two regional parties, the DMK and the AIADMK (formed in 1972 after splitting from the DMK), have split the spoils, reducing the Congress and later the BJP to seeking alliances with who they perceive is winning. Led by the bitterest of foes, both parties having more or less the same “progressive” agenda, this would sound very familiar to all those who have studied the growth of new parties in UP.

However, there is one critical difference, other than the fact that despite having twice the number of seats compared to Tamil Nadu, UP appears too fractured to deliver a solid chunk of seats to one player, at the moment. The “flexibility” of the two Dravida parties makes the state far too dizzying to “predict”. In Tamil Nadu, the two parties have been aligned with or part of both the main coalitions at the Centre, the UPA and the NDA. The AIADMK was first with the NDA, then against them, then again briefly with them. The DMK too was in government for almost five years with the BJP leading the coalition, then it swore off them and got together with the Congress and even in the state is dependent on Congress support.

Reading the tea leaves there is made harder by three factors. First, the Tamil issue. Both Dravida parties are quite far from the cocktail of Tamil nationalism, linguistic-ethnic pride and fiery caste assertion of the ’50s and ’60s. But vestiges remain. It is unclear how the Sri Lankan army’s military offensive against the LTTE will play out politically in Tamil Nadu. There have been protests, self-immolations, and a volatile situation at the Madras High Court. It is not clear how popular an issue it will be, and which party could gain from it. In 1991, after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi by the LTTE, Jayalalithaa’s clear anti-LTTE positioning meant a rout for the DMK. This time round, Vaiko’s MDMK has been the most vocal on the situation in Sri Lanka.

The second factor is the PMK’s vote share. While S. Ramadoss’s PMK remains in government at the Centre, the DMK snapped ties with this group last year. Founded in 1989 as a “party of the small/ oppressed people”, it grew out of a caste organisation representing the Vanniyars (prominent and most numerous amongst the most backward castes in Tamil Nadu, where backward caste politics has been very much the impetus for political mobilisation). Vanniyars, close to 12 per cent of the state’s population, are concentrated in the northern districts of the state and can determine outcomes in several seats. The PMK, with a 6-8 per cent vote share, becomes quite crucial in any election. It is still unclear which way the PMK will go.

The third factor, which is a new one in Tamil Nadu’s politics, is the Vijaykanth or the “Captain” factor. The cinestar formed his political party in 2005 called the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK, the national progressive Dravida party) and contested all the 234 seats in the assembly in 2006. While only the leader, Captain, won, they got 8.32 per cent of the vote (incidentally, more than the Congress’s vote share). Vijaykanth projects himself as “Puratchi Kalaignar” — drawing from both Jayalalithaa’s Puratchi Thalaivi (revolutionary leader) and Karunanidhi’s Kalaignar (king of the arts) — and leads a centre-left grouping, claiming his agenda is to free the state from the domination of the two Dravida parties. Clearly, he will be unable to get very close to that soaring objective this time round, but — as was apparent in the 2006 assembly elections — there is growing room for these so-called “small” parties.

More than in any other state, the key to securing seats in Tamil Nadu is the kind of alliances a party sews up. So the Congress, the Left, small Dalit outfits, with smaller vote shares, have actually got together and made the difference between winners and losers — something that was well and truly brought home in the 2004 sweep by the DMK-led Democratic Progressive Alliance and then again in the assembly elections three years ago. The DMK-led alliance included the PMK, the Congress and the Left then.

So, while the uncertainty of who will align with which “national” party before the polls is a puzzle, what adds to the mystery is that the Congress, at least so far, has kept open the question of prospective alliance partners, or of changing them after the results are out. (The Congress has decided not to go into these general elections as a “national alliance”.) So, it certainly won’t be over till it’s over and the next government is sworn in. It feels limiting to end a discussion about possible futures with a phrase from so long ago, but parkalam it appears to be.

seema.chishti@expressindia.com