However, there is one critical difference, other than the fact that despite having twice the number of seats compared to Tamil Nadu, UP appears too fractured to deliver a solid chunk of seats to one player, at the moment. The “flexibility” of the two Dravida parties makes the state far too dizzying to “predict”. In Tamil Nadu, the two parties have been aligned with or part of both the main coalitions at the Centre, the UPA and the NDA. The AIADMK was first with the NDA, then against them, then again briefly with them. The DMK too was in government for almost five years with the BJP leading the coalition, then it swore off them and got together with the Congress and even in the state is dependent on Congress support.

Reading the tea leaves there is made harder by three factors. First, the Tamil issue. Both Dravida parties are quite far from the cocktail of Tamil nationalism, linguistic-ethnic pride and fiery caste assertion of the ’50s and ’60s. But vestiges remain. It is unclear how the Sri Lankan army’s military offensive against the LTTE will play out politically in Tamil Nadu. There have been protests, self-immolations, and a volatile situation at the Madras High Court. It is not clear how popular an issue it will be, and which party could gain from it. In 1991, after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi by the LTTE, Jayalalithaa’s clear anti-LTTE positioning meant a rout for the DMK. This time round, Vaiko’s MDMK has been the most vocal on the situation in Sri Lanka.

... contd.