The second factor is the PMK’s vote share. While S. Ramadoss’s PMK remains in government at the Centre, the DMK snapped ties with this group last year. Founded in 1989 as a “party of the small/ oppressed people”, it grew out of a caste organisation representing the Vanniyars (prominent and most numerous amongst the most backward castes in Tamil Nadu, where backward caste politics has been very much the impetus for political mobilisation). Vanniyars, close to 12 per cent of the state’s population, are concentrated in the northern districts of the state and can determine outcomes in several seats. The PMK, with a 6-8 per cent vote share, becomes quite crucial in any election. It is still unclear which way the PMK will go.

The third factor, which is a new one in Tamil Nadu’s politics, is the Vijaykanth or the “Captain” factor. The cinestar formed his political party in 2005 called the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK, the national progressive Dravida party) and contested all the 234 seats in the assembly in 2006. While only the leader, Captain, won, they got 8.32 per cent of the vote (incidentally, more than the Congress’s vote share). Vijaykanth projects himself as “Puratchi Kalaignar” — drawing from both Jayalalithaa’s Puratchi Thalaivi (revolutionary leader) and Karunanidhi’s Kalaignar (king of the arts) — and leads a centre-left grouping, claiming his agenda is to free the state from the domination of the two Dravida parties. Clearly, he will be unable to get very close to that soaring objective this time round, but — as was apparent in the 2006 assembly elections — there is growing room for these so-called “small” parties.

... contd.