Of the masses of data on the agriculture section in the economic survey, there is one particular table that reveals the gist of the problem. This table (Table 7.6) is drawn from the Planning Commission, and the country must thank the person who put it together.

The table identifies 13 major items of interest and follows how they have grown since the 1980s. Technology (as measured by newer varieties of paddy, wheat, mustard, groundnut and maize); capital stock — public, private, and total; irrigated area — gross and net; cropped area; cropping intensity; electricity consumed in the agriculture sector; area under fruits and vegetables, NPK fertiliser use; and credit to the agriculture sector.

Consider the patterns. One: apart from credit, each and every one of these items have shown a fall in the growth rate in recent times; that is, 1996-97 till present vis-a-vis the period 1991 to 1996-97. Hence growth has fallen for land area, irrigated land area, use of fertiliser, use of better seed varieties, electricity, capital stock — both in the public and private domain, and cropping intensity.

Two: this deceleration is not a new phenomenon and has been occurring since the early nineties. Growth in public sector capital stock, electricity consumption, fertiliser consumption, improved seeds (technology), and cropping intensity was lower in the early nineties vis-a-vis the eighties.

Three: throughout this period credit growth has been accelerating — from 3.7 per cent annually in the eighties to 7.5 per cent in the mid-nineties to 14.4 per cent in the late nineties and early 2000s.

... contd.