The idea that democratisation of the Middle East would be the best antidote to Islamist extremism seemed like an idea whose time had come. Ideas, however, have strange ways of manifesting themselves in reality. Today, democratisation of the region is on no one’s agenda. Instead, the authoritarian regimes of the region — Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria — are all stronger than before, with repression at an all time high. Iran, on the other hand, is the strongest power in the region: twiddling its thumbs at the impotence of the West in carrying out the threats over its nuclear programme, and charting a foreign policy course that is more ambitious and radical than ever before.

Iraq, meanwhile, continues to struggle for survival burdened with an incompetent political elite and a growing clamour for the withdrawal of forces in the United States. The “surge” has produced some significant gains for the US but the purpose behind the new strategy is to provide enough space for the Iraqis to make political progress. That political progress has not been satisfactory and the surge can continue indefinitely. The danger is that various unsatisfied groups are merely waiting in the wings to strike back once the momentum of the surge starts to slacken. The US voters will have a clear choice to make in November as John McCain is ready to support the US military presence in Iraq for as long as the political process in Iraq requires that presence, while his Democratic opponents are keen to get the troops home as soon as possible although neither is ready to give a timetable.

... contd.