Americans are giving mixed reactions. In a remarkable turnaround, recent polls suggest that around 50 per cent now believe that they are winning in Iraq. A perception is gaining ground that the US can exit with some grace and even with the possibility of a “victory.” Iraq has, in many ways, become an American Rorschach test — Americans are seeing in it what they want to see.

Addressing the nation on the eve of the fifth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq last week, President George W. Bush was overwhelmed with emotion as he declared, “The surge has produced a result... this is a war that the US can and should win.” It was not the “mission accomplished” moment when on the USS Lincoln the president virtually declared victory. But the gusto with which Bush defended the US enterprise in Iraq signalled vividly that the old Bush was back. His confidence was merely a reflection of the changing public mood on Iraq.

The question is how long this public mood can last. Empires always fall and when they fall they are judged by the legacies they leave behind. The stakes remain as high as ever. If the US is successful in giving a modicum of stability to Iraq, and leave with a region relatively at ease with itself, the earlier mistakes of the Bush Administration will be viewed in a kinder light. If, however, the US decides to leave Iraq with various factions fighting with each other for political spoils and an entire region in turmoil as a result, then not only will this be a strategic defeat for the US but it will also come back to haunt it sooner than it will expect. In the aftermath of the failed Bay of Pigs fiasco, Arthur Schlesinger complained to John Kennedy, “We not only look like imperialists... we look like stupid, ineffectual imperialists, which is worst of all.” Today the US is once again facing the danger of looking like a “stupid, ineffectual imperialist.”

... contd.