Fundamentally our future will depend on how we strategise; this agreement alone will neither make it nor break it. But it does require us to be prepared for hard-headed negotiations and contracts and not look for assurances or threats in parchment texts.

The same applies to the crucial clause in the agreement that is open-ended: the right of termination. Euphemisms about consultation and grave consequences of termination are neither here nor there. Underlying is a fundamental question. When can we be confident that the US will not impose it to our disadvantage? Either we have powerful enough lobbies in the US, which many think we are now in a position to create. The business of US foreign policy is business: their incentive becomes our leverage. But it would be foolish to overestimate this. For fundamentally, how the agreement gets interpreted will depend on how much in line we fall with the US’s overall perspective of the world. This is where the greatest danger might lie. There is reason to think that we are beginning to define the world as the US does.

For instance, flirting with the idea of a concert of democracies as an organising principle in international affairs is dangerous. It is nothing but a contrivance designed to humiliate Russia, China and Iran. The Missile Defence Initiative is nothing but a catalyst for another arms race. Outside of the historically exceptional circumstances of Germany and Japan, US intervention has been catastrophic for so many societies, and even with a change in administration it is not clear that this policy will recover from its ruinous path. In short, it is not in our interests to act as if we have a strategic congruence with the US. Especially, if the deal goes through, we will have to work harder to maintain our independence or Jefferson’s “forced constructions” will be upon us. In India there is a bizarre Dulles-inspired dichotomy: either you are with America or against it. But the more sensible position is to recognise that America is a wonderful society but can be a dangerous state.

... contd.