Only yesterday, Hasina was at the BDR headquarters where she gave a strong speech emphasising to “not allow anyone to use Bangladesh territory as a springboard for terrorist activity”. She asked BDR personnel to crack down heavily on smuggling activities, adding that smugglers were “enemies of the country and its people”.

Given that the BDR has been found notorious on both counts in the past, the political message was not lost on anyone because the paramilitary force is considered heavily penetrated at the lower and middle ranks by affiliates of Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamiat-e-Islami (Bangladesh). The BDR rebels stormed into the headquarters today and captured the Army brass which heads and controls the outfit, killing at least two officers.

The principal concern from here is the possibility of this being controlled by disgruntled military officers who are now out of favour and are known BNP affiliates. Earlier this month, the Hasina government had removed Maj Gen Golam Mohammed as head of the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) and replaced him with Maj Gen Mollah Fazle Akbar. Set up on the lines of the Pakistani ISI, the DGFI has close links with Islamic fundamentalists besides the Zia family. Reining in the DGFI was always among Hasina’s top priorities.

Bangladesh Army Chief Gen Moeen U Ahmed, on his part, has been trying to weed out pro-Khaleda Zia officers after he nipped in the bud a coup plot against him last year. This was prompted, among other reasons, by Moeen’s change in stand to forge closer military ties with India.

In a major reshuffle, he shifted a handful of Generals after it was revealed that Lt Gen Masududdin Chowdhury, who then had under his command the critical 9 Infantry Division located at Savar on the outskirts of Dhaka, was behind the plot. He is related to Khaleda Zia’s brother Maj Gen (retd) Syed Shamim Iskander — their wives are sisters.

While so far the Army has held together amid reports of its officers being killed by BDR personnel, the assessment is there is more to it than BDR demands for parity with Army personnel which has led to the current situation. A spectre of instability, coupled with suspicious battles within the Army that is expected to control the situation and a new government wanting to try 1971 war criminals could rapidly trigger an unexpected crisis in Dhaka.

This has to also to be seen in the context of death threats to Hasina in recent weeks. She has had to be shifted to a more secure guest house. Even during her campaign, sources said, there were reasonably credible inputs about such plots by extremist outfits. Her government’s decision to try war criminals has made the Jamiat-e-Islami very nervous as many of its members could come under the scanner for allegedly collaborating with the then Pakistan Army Generals.

A trial could also expose a lot about the Pakistan Army which has had Islamabad quite worried. Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari rushed special envoy Mirza Zia Ispahani last week to impress upon Dhaka to reconsider its decision. But the Bangladesh parliament has already passed a resolution to start a trial for 1971 war criminals and a public statement by Zardari’s envoy in Dhaka that this was not the right time for such a trial invited heavy criticism from Awami League MPs.

Clearly, sources said, an upset Pakistan Army and the ISI has been keeping its ear to the ground in Bangladesh in the wake of these developments, particularly with Islamabad not starting off well with the Hasina government.

All these factors, some of which are external, have generated fears about conspiracies and plots being hatched behind what apparently are BDR demands seeking status equivalence with their Army counterparts. The broad understanding in New Delhi, however, is that the escalation of an old and continuing resentment into an open revolt has a lot to do with the change of guard in Dhaka.