Everybody knows that the Middle East is a problem for the United States. Quite apart from its many troubles with the countries of the Arabian Peninsula, the Levant and North Africa, the US faces greater difficulties in the critical nations occupying the populous swath of land between Europe and India. They include two countries, Iraq and Afghanistan, in which the US is embroiled in military conflict; another, Iran, with which it has no diplomatic relations; and two nominal allies, Pakistan and Turkey, in which the US remains dismally unpopular.

This picture, grim as it is from Washington’s perspective, should be provoking some creative thinking about America’s overarching policy in the region. But there are very few indications that Bush or any of his potential successors as president have any such plan in the offing.

There have been some significant regional developments in recent months. US relations with Turkey have rebounded, at least temporarily, after Turkish strikes on Kurdish separatists in December. Pakistan’s political instability, on the other hand, is being viewed with increasing concern in Washington. Next month’s elections appear unlikely to alleviate the political imbroglio in Islamabad, much less the deeper extremist threats on its western frontier. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has announced it would send an extra 3,200 marines to Afghanistan to counter an expected Taliban spring offensive and train Afghan soldiers, showing a renewed focus on that front of the so-called War on Terror.

The crux of American policy in the broader Middle East, however, is Iran. The White House sees Iran as the main regional destabilising force in the Middle East, responsible for violence in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon and support for Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as a potentially significant nuclear threat. While American-led pressure on Iran to cut back on its nuclear programme has reduced somewhat following the release of a controversial National Intelligence Estimate late last year, the Bush administration remains adamant that isolating and containing Iran should be at the centre of its broader Middle East strategy.

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