Karnataka’s bedroom-farce politics is groping towards clarity, now that L.K. Advani has clearly stated that the BJP would prefer sitting in the opposition to depending on the JD(S) for support. The poaching between the Congress and BJP indicates that an emphatic victory by either party might be elusive, which had thrown up the likelihood that the slippery JD(S) might end up calling the shots by default, despite having betrayed both parties in the past.

Both the BJP and the Congress have big stakes in this election. A clear mandate in Karnataka would fulfil the BJP’s long-deferred dream of having a real base in the South, and for the Congress, winning back Karnataka could give the party a headstart with upcoming elections in MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, as well as consolidate their strategy for the general election. Either way, a hung assembly that depends on the JD(S) for existence would be disastrous, plunging the state into further instability and mayhem. The national parties get no policy latitude, constrained by the petty demands of their regional backer — recall that Dharam Singh expended most of his energy placating the temperamental Deve Gowda. And the JD(S), especially, is a cautionary tale against coalitions founded on opportunism — with Gowda’s suicide threats if his son threw over the Congress to partner with the BJP, and Kumaraswamy’s reneging on the power-sharing deal with the BJP — it has been a hell of a lesson in political machination, for the entire nation. The JD(S) has also tried to extend the state’s tentacles over much of Karnataka’s developmental agenda and held back key priorities like the Mysore-Bangalore infrastructure corridor project.

... contd.