There is uncanny similarity of numbers among the key strategists of the Congress and the BJP forty eight hours before the final round of LS 2009. Both the parties now individually quote a magical number of 165 seats and, of course, the tag of single largest party even though May 16 is exactly a week away. One of these two parties has to go wrong on that fateful day. But, just like the Russian roulette, the odds are even at the beginning of the new game. Let us take the two mainstream political parties one by one after discounting theory of BJP’s prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani’s Boswell, Sudheendra Kulkarni, that the two parties could even join hands to form a national government.

Although Congress party spokesman and a die-hard optimist Kapil Sibal gives Congress 200 seats in the final result tally, the key players in the party give a band of 160-165 seats in LS 2009. Even if we assume a figure of 165 seats for the Congress, then the total UPA tally should be around 200 seats with allies and others contributing another 35 seats. Add the Samajawadi party conservative tally of 20 seats and another 35 of the Left-- on the grounds that communalism is a greater threat than the Indo-US nuclear deal—and the magical figure of 272 is well within grasp.

However, if the Congress is so sure about its numbers, then it is pertinent to examine the reason behind party general secretary Rahul Gandhi’s unabashed praise of Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu Naidu and even J. Jayalalitha. And one must not forget the “ Kabbhi Ha, Kabhi Na” on the alliance with the Left. A political cynic would attribute it to the Congress and its allies not doing well in Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The jitters in the Congress that led to firing of loud mouth Veerappa Moily and a self important Ashwini Kumar from the media cell reveals that the party is certainly not as confident about the final tally as it would like to be.

... contd.