The probe into the attempted car bombings in Britain , investigators and experts say, is whether the trail of the would-be bombers will confirm fears that the threat from the war-torn Iraq region is escalating.

The background of the apparent chief suspect, Iraqi doctor Bilal Abdullah, suggests networks in the Iraq region that are linked to al-Qaeda selecting and dispatching operatives on a mission to Britain, experts say. Abdullah’s medical credentials, British passport and suspected ties to Sunni fundamentalists in Iraq could make him an ideal leader for a plan to hit London with a taste of Baghdad-style carnage, experts say.

“This is exactly what a number of us in the intelligence world had been predicting,” said Sir David Omand, who served as Britain’s security and intelligence co-ordinator until April 2005. “The concern was that al-Qaeda in Iraq would turn their minds to attacks outside Iraq. It’s not really a strategic surprise.”

The analysis remains incomplete. Investigators need time to pursue leads in West Asia, India and Australia. Although five suspects are Arab medical professionals, three are Indians.

Till now, the main threat from Iraq was seen as indirect, anti-terror investigators say. They worried militants from Europe and North Africa, many of them young, working-class men involved in street crime, would gain experience and militant connections in the combat zone and eventually return.

“We have always been sure that if the war stopped in Iraq, we would have a lot of guys ready to come back and cause problems for us,” a European anti-terror investigator said.

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