Now come the Ulfa killings of the vulnerable in Tinsukia, Sivasagar and Dibrugarh districts, in remote villages and island communities inhabited by Hindi speakers, especially settlers from Bihar. But even the phrase ‘Bihari settlers’ is a misnomer: for generations, many of them have known no other home but Assam. There are other residents of Assam too, Bodo and Mishing tribals, Bengali and Assamese speakers. They study, work and live in Assam. They rear cattle and transport milk to towns; their vegetable and fruit produce fill the markets of the Brahmaputra Valley.

So why were they targeted? Because they are vulnerable and therefore easy targets. No Z-category security for them, no police outposts or patrols, no roads, no communications. Ulfa’s message is unambiguous: they can kill the weak at will. It is also an assertion of a strategy that is simple and brutal: this is not aimed at the settlers, but at the state government and New Delhi. Ulfa activities surge in the days before Republic Day and Independence Day.

The organisation is apparently furious with army operations in the villages in and around Tinsukia, where they have a strong network, and have decided to hit back. The army operations have made life difficult for their cadres in Upper Assam where large non-Assamese speaking populations have lived for over 50 years. The message is unambiguous: get off our back or we’ll continue to cause mayhem. How much of that can a democratically elected government take? In addition, there is a determined effort to expose the government’s incapability to protect ordinary people and to create new faultlines of confrontation among Assamese speakers and non-speakers. Ulfa’s strength lies in creating divisions. Over the years, Assam and the Northeast have seen a deepening of divides along ethnic and sectarian lines.

Yet, will Ulfa’s strategy backfire? Will it force the government to back down or strengthen the resolve of Delhi and Dispur not to talk at gun point and resort to tougher action? They are asserting that the latest actions underscore that Ulfa is a terrorist group and are hitting back with tough counter-measures. This will only make the situation worse. The other message from Ulfa in this seemingly mindless violence is hardly acknowledged: a desperate call for attention, aimed not just at the metro media but at the government.

Both sides have to agree to direct talks; the time for interlocutors and representatives is gone. Both sides have to agree to compromises. An immediate halt to violence by Ulfa should be met by a cessation of military operations. Ulfa should give an assurance that it will not disrupt, as it has threatened, the National Games in Assam next month. Delivery on such an assurance by Ulfa should be followed by the release of the five Ulfa detainees in Guwahati jail to facilitate direct talks between the Centre and the top Ulfa leadership.

We cannot ignore the fact that the Ulfa leadership lives in Bangladesh. A tense Bangladesh braces for general elections later this month. What is Ulfa’s future if turmoil continues in Bangladesh, given the support it has reportedly received from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the army and intelligence agencies? That remains a crucial question.

We need reminding of Mahatma Gandhi’s advice of December 15, 1946, when he threw his support behind Gopinath Bardoloi and his Congress team. At the time Assam faced the threat of being pushed into a constitutional bind that would have seen its domination by Bengal and subsequent absorption by East Pakistan: “If Assam keeps quiet, it is finished... Assam must not lose its soul.” The Northeast, rich in natural resources, is at the bottom of India’s economic heap because of poor governance and an unending spiral of confrontation. The latest bout of killings does not anger as much as it sickens and saddens me.

The writer is a consulting editor at ‘The Statesman’ and with the Centre for North East Studies and Policy Research