The organisation is apparently furious with army operations in the villages in and around Tinsukia, where they have a strong network, and have decided to hit back. The army operations have made life difficult for their cadres in Upper Assam where large non-Assamese speaking populations have lived for over 50 years. The message is unambiguous: get off our back or we’ll continue to cause mayhem. How much of that can a democratically elected government take? In addition, there is a determined effort to expose the government’s incapability to protect ordinary people and to create new faultlines of confrontation among Assamese speakers and non-speakers. Ulfa’s strength lies in creating divisions. Over the years, Assam and the Northeast have seen a deepening of divides along ethnic and sectarian lines.

Yet, will Ulfa’s strategy backfire? Will it force the government to back down or strengthen the resolve of Delhi and Dispur not to talk at gun point and resort to tougher action? They are asserting that the latest actions underscore that Ulfa is a terrorist group and are hitting back with tough counter-measures. This will only make the situation worse. The other message from Ulfa in this seemingly mindless violence is hardly acknowledged: a desperate call for attention, aimed not just at the metro media but at the government.

Both sides have to agree to direct talks; the time for interlocutors and representatives is gone. Both sides have to agree to compromises. An immediate halt to violence by Ulfa should be met by a cessation of military operations. Ulfa should give an assurance that it will not disrupt, as it has threatened, the National Games in Assam next month. Delivery on such an assurance by Ulfa should be followed by the release of the five Ulfa detainees in Guwahati jail to facilitate direct talks between the Centre and the top Ulfa leadership.

... contd.