UN cuts India GDP forecast to 6.1% for ’13, fears another recession
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India's economic growth slid to a decade-low of 5.4% during April-September 2012, which prompted Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to indicate that growth could slide below 6% in fiscal year that ends in March 2013, from 6.5% during 2011-12 and 8.4% during 2010-11. UN's forecast corroborates with analysts in Citi, CLSA and HSBC which expect a mild recovery to 6-6.2% during 2013-14. However, Crisil expects GDP to grow 6.7%, assuming normal monsoon, higher government spending, recovery in exports and rate cuts from Reserve Bank of India.
In the South Asia region, India's economic expansion will be slower than even Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, which are expected to grow 6.3% and 6.7%, respectively during 2013 and by 6.4% each in 2014. Among BRICS nations, India will trail China, but grow faster than Brazil, Russia and South Africa.
UN lowered China's GDP growth forecast 0.6 percentage point to 7.9% for 2013 and forecast 8% for 2014. Brazil is expected to grow 4%, Russia 3.8% and South Africa 3.1%. The growth rates of BRICS nations will be much higher than the average for developed nations at 1.1% during 2013.
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