Of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra that will be going to polls on Thursday in the first phase, 10 are in Vidarbha. And the picture 24 hours before polling in this particular region, often referred to as the farm-suicide zone of India, is more or less clear — the BJP-Sena combine may not be able to repeat its 2004 performance.

If Sharad Pawar’s nine-out-of-ten claim appears tall, the prevailing trends show that honours are likely to be shared by both sides. While the ruling Congress-NCP alliance has an edge in Nagpur, Wardha, the saffron combine is better placed in Gadchiroli and Bhandara-Gondia. The fight for Buldana, Yavatmal, Chandrapur, Ramtek and Amravati is delicately poised. All now depends on the voter turnout, which is the only influencing factor that remains untested.

If all goes well for them, the Congress-NCP may eventually win five seats avenging the 2004 saffron sweep (10 out of 11; one seat has abolished this time after delimitation), despite the BSP factor which is likely to play a major role in some if not all the constituencies this time too.

In Nagpur, sitting MP and Union Minister for Renewable Energy Vilas Muttemwar is up against own partymen than the BJP’s Banwarilal Purohit. Three Congress MLAs — Anees Ahmed, Satish Chaturvedi and Nitin Raut — are out to settle old scores. Muttemwar privately acknowledges it, but hopes he will scrape through.

In Ramtek (SC), Congress general secretary Mukul Wasnik has an edge over Shiv Sena’s Krupal Tumane, but Sulekha Kumbhare of the RPI is bent upon spoiling his chances. Adding to the woes will be the BSP’s Prakash Temurde. Apart from division of Dalit votes, Wasnik is facing a very acerbic opposition campaign that his father Balkrishna Wasnik was responsible for the defeat of Babasaheb Ambedkar in Bhandara in the early 1950s.

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