Mayawati need not look over her shoulder as she enters the last stretch of the electoral marathon in Uttar Pradesh. With only two more rounds to go, it appears unlikely that anyone can catch up with her. The BSP appears set to finish first, in what is certain to be its best ever performance.

But as she knows very well, this race is not about finishing first. Barring a dramatic turnaround in the last two rounds, or a gross misjudgment by all polls, it is equally certain that her party will finish well short of the magical figure of 202 seats. How short, and who can help her fill the gap, are the real political questions that she would want answered, if only election forecasts were more accurate and reliable than they are.

For the time being, she has to deal with estimates and projections. The Indian Express-CNN-IBN-CSDS post-poll survey estimates that the BSP may have already bagged more than 100 seats of the 292 that have gone to polls so far in the first five phases.

Having neutralized the SP in its home ground around Kanpur and worsted the RLD in Western UP, the BSP appears to have done very well in the fifth phase. The party could well sweep the region south of Allahabad, including districts like Fatehpur, Banda and Chitrakoot. If the trend so far continues in the last two phases, the BSP will finish around 145-155 seats in the new Assembly, needing nearly fifty more seats for a majority.

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