The Amitabh Bachchan trial balloon may not reach very far but the present imbroglio in Uttar Pradesh is certain to cast a long shadow on the presidential elections later this year and has increased the chances of a “Third Front” candidate as the next incumbent of Rashtrapati Bhavan.

Even if the Congress manages to retain Punjab and Uttarakhand and improves its tally in the next UP assembly, the party does not have enough numbers in the electoral college to impose its own presidential candidate.

In fact, the configuration in Parliament and state assemblies are such that neither the UPA nor the NDA can push its choice for president without the support of parties outside the two combinations.

And the two “non-aligned” parties that account for the highest number of parliamentary seats are the CPI(M) and Samajwadi Party. With 44 members in the Lok Sabha and 14 in the Rajya Sabha, the CPI(M) alone accounts for 58 MPs. The SP is a close runner-up with 54 MPs (LS — 38, RS —16).

If the Congress is keen to have its own man as president, it will have to do a lot of groundwork to get the support of the Left and other non-UPA constituents.

But with the Congress leadership bent on imposing President’s rule in UP, the chances of SP’s support — bleak to begin with — is getting even more remote. The presidential elections was not part of the formal agenda at the just-concluded meeting of the CPI(M) politburo, but the party leadership is “seized of the issue” and will discuss it once the assembly election results are out at the end of this month, well placed sources indicated today.

... contd.