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Up, through highs and lows

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  • Gautam Chikermane

    The path to that scale is currently being built by heavy investments — private, public and PPPs — in infrastructure. Not as much as China’s but much more than ever seen before. Physical connectivity, infrastructure of roads, ports, railways and airports will speed up goods delivery. Communications infrastructure of telecom is already doing its magic to productivity and will continue. Regulatory and financial infrastructure that oversees all these and links them through finance (banking, insurance, capital markets and pensions) will, we hope, make doing business in India a more pleasant, more profitable experience. Coming to ride that infrastructure are not only crores of rupees but billions of dollars as well.

    So, with an almost certain medium- to long-term future ahead, just what is the uncertainty we’re talking about? It is short-term trading and speculation that create higher volatility. But unless you are riding this volatility full time, chances are against you. Now, ‘chance’ is a word that takes us into a realm that goes beyond investing — it takes us into a casino where, looking at the cards you’ve been dealt (that is today’s numbers), you take ‘bets’ on whether to buy more or sell out. Which suits the temperament of some people just fine.

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    For the larger mass of people wanting to create long-term wealth, however, these are noisy but often profitable blips. An 841 point fall in just four days that has brought the prices of many good companies down by over 20 per cent makes them more attractive than they were. It’s like buying the latest Rs 10,000 iPod for Rs 8,000 or getting a Rs 3,000 iPod Shuffle for your sweetheart for free. But why bother? Your mutual fund would be doing that for you anyway, just continue with your systematic investment plan.

    ... contd.

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