Two factors have hobbled the UPA as the peace process unravels in Sri Lanka. One is its political fear of offending the coalition partners from Tamil Nadu, and the other is in letting the Mahinda Rajapakse government — which is chasing the illusion of a military solution to the ethnic conflict — believe that it can take India for granted.

Historically all governments in New Delhi have had to take into account Tamil political sensitivities in dealing with the civil war in Sri Lanka. But few governments have sunk to the depths of such a pre-emptive appeasement of Tamil coalition partners. Whether it is in letting its allies proceed with the controversial Sethusamudram project or in failing to take timely steps to counter the LTTE, the UPA government has chosen to abandon its national responsibilities rather than invite any political trouble in the coalition.

The NDA, too, had its partners from Tamil Nadu. But in conducting its policy towards Sri Lanka, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government was willing to explore sophisticated options. When the Sri Lankan crisis re-erupted in 2000, Vajpayee moved quickly with arms supplies to Sri Lanka, but also pressed Colombo to embark on a negotiation with the Tamil Tigers. This even-handed policy helped strengthen the basis for a peace process.

Thanks to the UPA government’s hands-off policy, India is losing ground in both camps. In putting the defence cooperation agreement with Sri Lanka, negotiated during the final months of the NDA government, in cold storage, it has forsaken its influence with Colombo on the key issue of weapons supplies to its army at war. Sri Lanka has now turned to Pakistan and China for its weapons needs. Defence Minister A.K. Antony has informed us recently that India is yet to take a decision on coordinated naval patrolling with Sri Lanka. Without the active deterrence from the Indian Navy, the LTTE is free to reinforce its own military capabilities. More consequentially, the LTTE appears convinced that the UPA has no political stomach for an argument, let alone a contestation on Sri Lankan policy, given its political allies in Tamil Nadu.

... contd.