There are two ways of reading the political message of the Indian Express—CNN-IBN—CSDS poll. Many within the government would no doubt draw comfort from the fact that the people do not want mid-term polls and that public opinion is not against the government on the Indo-US deal. They would be delighted that the ruling coalition can look forward to improving its performance in the next election. The survey projects that with a tally of 267 seats in the Lok Sabha, the UPA can continue in power without the Left and, with some luck, without any outside support. The NDA, particularly the BJP, is expected to go down significantly. Coming in the fourth year of being in power, this assurance is bound to lull Congressmen into a complacency typical of the Congress’ tryst with power.

On a politically astute reading, however, this survey signals the beginning of the end of this government’s extended honeymoon. The UPA did not come to power riding on a high tide of popularity. The six-monthly State of the Nation Surveys carried out by the CSDS for CNN-IBN and now Indian Express showed that in the first two years, the UPA government earned a mandate it did not come with. That delayed the onset of disenchantment. The UPA hit the peak by January 2007 from which it can only come down.

The latest survey suggests that the journey downwards has already begun. The UPA has dropped about 30 Lok Sabha seats and about 4 percentage points of popular vote in the last six months. More, there are signs of public disenchantment of the kind that did the NDA in. In the last two years, the UPA government was rated to be way above the NDA government. This time the gap has narrowed substantially. People say that corruption, terrorism, unemployment and inflation have gone up after the UPA came to power. The most damning sign is that the government’s policies are seen to have benefited only the rich and worsened the conditions of farmers.

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