The other option, then, is for the government to cut its losses and go for mid-term polls. The Indian Express—CNN-IBN—CSDS poll shows that the growing resentment against the government has not yet fully translated into a big loss of votes and seats as the UPA enjoys one enduring and one temporary advantage over the NDA. The enduring advantage is that the Congress-led coalition is a much bigger political entity than the shrinking coalition led by the BJP. In order to take on the UPA, the NDA needs to include all the anti-Congress forces and hope for a particularly fortunate moment. The UPA could consolidate its advantage by repairing the coalition in Bihar and Jharkhand, bringing Mamata Banerjee into its fold and by partial alliance with the BSP.

The temporary advantage for the UPA is that the electoral cycle has moved full circle in the major BJP-ruled states except Gujarat and will result in big electoral losses for the party. But the Congress is not yet on the receiving end of the incumbency disadvantage in Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Maharashtra and Haryana. Hence the current buoyancy in its political stock.

From the point of view of the Congress, then, it cannot afford to delay the decision. Only a flash election can give the Congress the opportunity to convert the current situation into electoral victory. Any serious delay could intensify the brewing disaffection all over the country. In particular, it is likely that the incumbency disadvantage could lead to major losses in Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Haryana and Tamil Nadu. It would give the BJP the time it needs to recover from its organisational disarray and build bridges with Shiv Sena, INLD, Trinamul Congress and AIADMK. Above all, the survey indicates that the BJP still enjoys a clear lead in Gujarat. A victory in the Gujarat election will give the BJP the moral booster it desperately needs after UP. If the Congress is serious about mid-term polls, it has to gather its political wits, rally its allies, make a surprise announcement.

... contd.