The decision went against public opinion but Bhutto probably thought the PPP could pull it off by virtue of being the largest political party with the biggest vote bank. Initial covert contacts led to more overt actions. Bhutto refused to participate in the multi-party conference convened by Sharif in London and also opposed the formation of an electoral alliance, which included the religious Mutahidda Majlis-e Amal.

Sharif was deeply unhappy. While Bhutto had found a fallback position, Sharif had none. Later, with the Abu Dhabi meeting between Musharraf and Bhutto, the contours of the ‘deal’ became public. At that point, Sharif gave a burial to the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy and announced that he would not deal with Musharraf.

As matters stand, Bhutto has burnt her boats. She cannot go back to the opposition; and she cannot enter the tent if Musharraf doesn’t let her in (though the SC verdict may now force a dithering Musharraf to stitch a deal post haste).

If Bhutto is cut loose by both sides, she will have no option but to contest elections purely on the strength of her own party, and against the combined opposition on one hand and the ruling faction of the Muslim League and its cohorts on the other. That, given the popular mood, may not redound to the PPP’s advantage. Conversely, if Musharraf does embrace her, the politics of Pakistan will again see the deep cleavage between the pro- and anti-Musharraf entities after a spate of political alignments and re-alignments.

... contd.