Afghanistan may be still more problematic. According to the Elysée, Mr Sarkozy has promised Mr Obama that France will stand by the Americans there. He sent 700 extra soldiers last year, but has hinted that he does not plan to send any more. There is equally little prospect of many additional British troops, given the army’s current overstretch.

The Germans are thus braced for Mr Obama to seek more from them. The global economic crisis will trigger a “heavy burden-sharing debate” between America and its allies, says Josef Braml of the German Council on Foreign Relations. Germany fears being asked to increase its troop numbers in Afghanistan above its 4,500 ceiling and to deploy them in more dangerous areas. Yet Mr Obama will know that the Germans are unlikely to commit more soldiers before September’s election. “The last thing the American military wants is a lot of new European troops looking for close air support,” notes Jeremy Shapiro of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank in Washington, DC.

Another awkward issue may be Iran. Mr Obama has offered dialogue but also tougher sanctions to dissuade the Iranians from pursuing their nuclear ambitions. Again Germany, as the biggest Western exporter to Iran, is in the forefront. It has in the past been reluctant to accept tougher sanctions but, after an embarrassing leap in its exports last year, may now reconsider.

Mr Obama will not be able to please all. He may take a less hawkish line on Russia than Mr Bush, for example—to the relief of Germany but the consternation of central Europeans. There is speculation that he will slow the deployment of missile defences in Poland and the Czech Republic. He might even consider Russia’s proposal for a new security zone stretching from Vancouver to Vladivostok, though not at the expense of NATO. Yet America’s main preoccupation in the longer run will be China, suggests Karsten Voigt, co-ordinator of relations with America at the German foreign ministry. Indeed, many in Europe sadly expect an Obama administration to focus more on Asia.

... contd.