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Wall Street presidential poll picks aren’t proving very accurate

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  • Barack Obama is enjoying a lot of momentum in the polls, much to Hillary Clinton’s chagrin. But just a few months ago, the denizens of Wall Street were placing a majority of their financial bets on Clinton. Consider the US Federal data on fourth-quarter political donations, which were made public late last week. The numbers were crunched for people who listed themselves as employees at one of the top 10 financial firms, as measured by stock underwriting activity in the United States.

    The results showed that Hillary Clinton easily led the pack in fourth-quarter donations from the financial industry, taking in $3,88,391. Employees from a single firm, Lehman Brothers, accounted for $1,13,320 of that sum. That put her far ahead of the second-place recipient, Republican candidate Mitt Romney, who raised $2,93,750 from Wall Street sources. Obama, with $2,51,860 in fourth-quarter donations from Wall Street workers, took third place. Rudolph Giuliani, the former New York City mayor who recently dropped out of the running, rounded out the top four with $2,22,840.

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    So far, Wall Street’s check-writing habits aren’t proving to be a very accurate indicator of success in this presidential race. John McCain got a relative pittance — just $74,547— from financial types in the fourth quarter. But he has since emerged as a formidable opponent to Romney for the Republican nomination.

    The rankings were very different in the first two quarters of 2007, when Obama out-raised Clinton among Wall Street firms. But the tide shifted in the third quarter, when Clinton’s campaign took the most donations from Wall Street sources. She kept that lead in the fourth quarter, which ended just before the state primaries and caucuses began.

    What about the private equity crowd?

    An analysis of fourth-quarter donations from executives at private equity firms shows that the leader in that category is hardly a surprise: Mick Romney, who previously led the private equity firm Bain Capital, remained the candidate of choice, receiving $85,150 from employees of private equity firms during the fourth quarter, for a total of $4,79,650 last year.

    Christopher Dodd, the Democratic candidate who dropped out of the race last month, ranked second among private equity donations. While other Democratic candidates backed a proposed tax increase on private equity profits, Dodd’s noncommittal stance on the issue may have won him support from the industry,.

    In October, Dodd got a vote of confidence from one of the industry’s leading names, Henry Kravis of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts. Records show that Kravis and his wife each gave Dodd’s now-defunct campaign $2,300, the maximum individual donation to a federal campaign.

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