The importance being given to the ruling coalition of Tamil Nadu’s DMK party, which is considered to be soft on the LTTE makes it unlikely that India will change its policy. However, the episodic influx of refugees (150,000 from the northeast) into Tamil Nadu and the use of the state as a conduit for arms smuggling to the LTTE, and the more recent use by the LTTE of the Indian stock markets make it impossible for India to ignore the Sri Lankan crisis, but neither can it do anything when neither side is willing to listen. More waves of refugees can be expected to arrive on Indian shores.

A viable peace in Sri Lanka has to be imposed but the exit from the CFA has shut the window (at least temporarily) for the international community’s involvement.

The writer is a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi

shylashris@gmail.com