There is a surge in terrorist attacks in Pakistan. The most audacious being the precision assault on the Pakistan Army Headquarters followed by the coordinated triple attack on security establishments in Lahore. The Army is now the principal target after its largely successful operation in Swat, and because of the major offensive in South Waziristan. The Swat operation was a milestone in the counter terrorism campaign. It was made possible only by the buildup of public, political and media support, on which the sustainability of the effort depends.

For the outside world and Pakistan, these spate of attacks raise a number of questions. Is the security situation deteriorating and will the military, paramilitary and police forces be put on the defensive with heightened public insecurity eroding public morale? What is the response strategy? The US media has criticised the Army’s security for not stopping the attack at the outermost security cordon perimeter. To analyse what the present situation portends, one must view this struggle between the forces for a progressive Pakistan and the militants’ vision of a theocratic Pakistan in the context of national dynamics, international parallels and of the timescale and resources required to win this battle for the soul of Pakistan.

As far as the Pakistan Army is concerned, while lessons should be learnt, the attack on its HQ was contained and took time to end only because of the hostages. America, the most advanced country in the world was unable to prevent 9/11. The Mumbai attack virtually took another metropolis hostage. Despite massive military and monetary intervention in Iraq, the security situation has forced America into an exit strategy. While even more resources and troops are being poured into Afghanistan, attacks against civilians and the military are far higher than in the much larger Pakistan .

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