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Weathering the storm

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  • Dr Akhilesh Gupta

    2006: Worst drought in a century in Australia.UK gets hottest September in 277 years. Malaysia inundated with heaviest rainfall in 100 years. Moscow’s mid-December temperatures highest in 108 years.

    2007: Intense rainstorms in Indonesia. Worst drought in 30 years in north China.

    Is it related to global warming?

    Some meteorologists believe that such extremities could be part of natural climate variability. But a majority of them tend to agree that as the world warms, some extreme events which are directly linked to warming, are expected to increase.

    There is a tendency to relate every extreme event with global warming. It is important to note that it is not possible to link any particular weather or climate event definitively to global warming. The causal linkage, if any, can only be determined through statistical analyses of long-term data.

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    Can such extremities be controlled?

    There is no way that we can prevent these disasters from happening. But, we can soften their impact. For example, a green belt in the city can make the heat wave less felt by the people. Similarly improved predictions and advance warnings on severe weather events can help people prepare better.

    If we stabilized greenhouse gas emissions at today’s rates, would global warming stop?

    No. As of now we emit more carbon dioxide than natural processes like photosynthesis and absorption by oceans are able to remove. Therefore, stabilising at today’s rates will still mean that “deposits” would continue to exceed natural “withdrawls”.

    ... contd.

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