The past is never dead; it’s not even past,” said William Faulkner. The events in the Caucasus are so reminiscent of the hey-day of the Cold War that one can be excused for thinking that the Cold War never actually ended. Russia invades its neighbour because it dislikes the regime. The United States responds by airlifting military aid. The two powers stand eyeball to eyeball in a region of great instability. And the Europeans look on, afraid that a major conflict might soon erupt on their doorsteps and call for a negotiated settlement. Did you say déjà vu all over again? 

The present Russia-Georgia conflict might just mark the turning point in Russia’s re-emergence and in its relationship with the West. This conflict was bound to erupt one day, given the historical, political and strategic differences between Russia and Georgia. But it happened sooner than many would have predicted due to a constellation of factors. Georgia has increasingly gravitated towards the West, and to the US in particular. It has been clamouring to become a member of NATO along with Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly made it clear that it would not like NATO to be anywhere near its periphery, its near abroad which it considers its own sphere of influence. Moreover, Russia remains angry at the West for recognising Kosovo’s independence from Serbia. Russia had warned that it might set a precedent for South Ossetia and other breakaway provinces. 

When Georgia started military action against South Ossetia, Russia decided that the time had come to assert its prowess. Georgia seemed to have miscalculated Russian response as well as the broader strategic picture. The Russians have succeeded in unilaterally establishing their military dominance in the region with a clear interest in a regime change in Georgia. The US remains preoccupied with several other conflicts and it has neither the ability nor the willingness to confront Russia militarily on this issue. It needs Russian cooperation on a whole host of global issues from West Asia to nuclear arms control. 

... contd.