Russia’s reaction to the latest conflict can either propel its neighbouring states to be more cautious in dealing with the West and delay their entry into the NATO or it can further spur them into action for an even closer alliance with the West. Poland and the US quickly concluded their deal on missile defence even as Russia threatened Poland of an attack, even a nuclear one in retaliation. Ukraine is planning a naval exercise with the Americans. Europeans are warning that Georgia and Ukraine will be in NATO earlier than expected. The West is gradually realising that contemporary Russia poses a grave geopolitical challenge that can no longer be managed merely by conciliatory gestures.

The developments in Europe will have a far greater impact on Indian foreign policy than many realise. India has been able to pursue its “multi-vector” foreign policy partly because the relations between all the major powers in the world have been stable for the last few years. As tensions rise between the West and Russia, India will have to make some complicated diplomatic choices. It would be better prepared to make those choices if it is aware of the implications of the far-reaching changes taking place in Europe. 

The writer teaches at King’s College, London

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