The last time Barack Obama was in Russia, he and Senator Dick Lugar were detained by border guards for several hours at an airport in the Urals, where they were looking at how American funds were helping to get rid of stocks of dangerous Soviet-era weapons. America’s president has every reason to hope things will go better this time, but that is not setting a very high hurdle for success. Of all the great power relationships Mr Obama inherited from George Bush, Russia is the most awkward-awkward not only because it has been getting ever harder to deal with but also because it cannot be ignored.

Over the past ten years, under Vladimir Putin’s leadership, Russia has become more nationalistic, corrupt and corporatist. Its economy, although much bigger than a decade ago, is even more dependent on oil and gas, an industry now controlled by a small group of kleptocratic courtiers and former spies. The decision by Ikea, a well-known Swedish furniture supplier once bullish about Russia, to suspend investment because of graft is an indictment of the dire commercial climate. Its non-energy exports are smaller than Sweden’s.

Russia’s population is shrinking alarmingly, its death rate double that in most developed countries. Conflicts in its north Caucasus republics have flared again. Its armed forces are woefully ill-equipped and poorly trained. Mr Putin has kept control by unleashing a virulent brand of anti-Western “patriotism”-the latest textbooks are as tough on America as they are soft on Stalin—and thuggishly silencing the opposition. Last year in a pretence of democracy Mr Putin installed Dmitry Medvedev (Mr Obama’s supposed host) as president while he himself became prime minister.

... contd.