On not being a pushover

Mr Bush’s policy towards Russia was both confused and confusing. One moment he was looking into Mr Putin’s eyes and finding a man he could trust; the next he was preaching democracy while failing to lift cold-war economic restrictions. Mostly, though, he was not very interested in Russia—and it showed. Russia, self-esteem wounded, claimed that America was promoting democracy to further its geopolitical interests.

Mr Obama’s combination of calmness and humility could well help America deal with a country whose national pride is dangerously spiked with a sense of inferiority. But there are plenty of pitfalls ahead.

America’s president needs to resist the temptation to play on supposed differences between Mr Putin and the more “liberal” Mr Medvedev. These are more notional than real, as the farcical second show trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former oil boss and a Putin rival, which is taking place on Mr Medvedev’s watch, demonstrates.

Meanwhile, humility about some of America’s past mistakes should not leave Russia’s leaders with the impression that Mr Obama will be a pushover. Robustness is necessary because of the widening gap between the interests of the Russian people and those of its ruling elite (the people who stoke anti-Americanism even as they send their offspring to Western universities and buy up holiday homes in France). With the economy declining and social discontent rising, a stand-off with the West might be tempting for Mr Putin’s cabal—but ruinous for most Russians. It was not America’s fault that Russia failed to develop an independent judiciary, opting for corruption as the organising principle of its political system. Nor is it America’s fault that Russia wasted the years of high oil prices.

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