Most of all, Mr Obama needs to be firm over Russia’s ambitions to dominate the countries along its western and southern borders. Mr Bush’s attempt to hurry Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, ready or not (they weren’t, and won’t be for a long time) was a mistake. But both countries, like all others in Europe, have the right to choose their own friends. Mr Obama must make clear that he will not cut them adrift and will not tolerate attempts to destabilise their governments. Europeans could help too by diversifying their oil and gas supplies so that Russia is not tempted to turn off their taps either.

Ironically, given Mr Obama’s difficulties in the Urals, the easiest place to start may be arms control. There is room to reduce further both sides’ warheads; it is also a subject that flatters Russia. But this is going to be an awkward relationship, one where the West’s expectations of success should be low.

© The Economist Newspaper Limited 2009