: If Karnataka was on a political roller coaster in 2007, 2008 promises to be no less dramatic in the state. This year, voters will exercise their choice on the party (or parties) that will rule them. Will that be in May or closer to the end of the year when the election administration is fully geared to conduct a poll subsequent to the conclusion of the delimitation exercise? In this decision hinges a major political tale.
Given the developments of 2006 — the flip-flop ‘now friends-now enemies’ relationship between the Janata Dal (S) and the BJP, the Congress waiting impatiently on the sidelines and the two spells of President’s Rule — the major political players in Karnataka are carefully weighing the electoral options. The BJP wants a quick poll to reap what it perceives to be the benefits of a ‘sympathy wave’, after being denied the opportunity to remain in power by the JD(S). The Congress would be happy with a poll as late as possible. The Janata Dal(S) does not seem sure, more concerned with keeping its flock intact and looking to the ruling political family for directions. The smaller political parties are hoping for a hung assembly to emerge as ‘king makers’. Where they stand clearly depends on where they anticipate they will sit in the House.
The six months’ span of President’s rule will end in May 2008. If elections are to be held within this period it would necessarily have to be within the framework of the present delimitation of constituencies.
The reason why the BJP is all for an early poll is also this: the party is on a high after its victories in north India. The party realises that if it became the single largest party in the state assembly in 2004 it had a lot to do with the ‘Vajpayee factor’. An even better performance would require it to further consolidate its votes. At the present moment, the caste configuration appears to be favouring the BJP. A prominent Lingayat leader, B.S. Yeddyurappa, was brought down from the chief ministership abruptly and this factor could help consolidate the community votes in favour of the BJP.
Sandeep Shastri
