The reason why the BJP is all for an early poll is also this: the party is on a high after its victories in north India. The party realises that if it became the single largest party in the state assembly in 2004 it had a lot to do with the ‘Vajpayee factor’. An even better performance would require it to further consolidate its votes. At the present moment, the caste configuration appears to be favouring the BJP. A prominent Lingayat leader, B.S. Yeddyurappa, was brought down from the chief ministership abruptly and this factor could help consolidate the community votes in favour of the BJP.

The other dominant caste — the Vokkaligas — remain divided between the JD(S) and Congress. In 2004, the BJP had made serious inroads into the traditional Congress OBC vote bank and it hopes to further capitalise on these gains. All this explains why the party is baying for an early poll. The more the poll is delayed the greater is the likelihood of the ‘sympathy factor ‘ waning. Infighting within the state unit of the party could also spill out more in the open.

The Congress is keen on as delayed a poll as possible. The party would have ideally liked the new state assembly to be elected at the same time as the next Lok Sabha poll. For now, the Lok Sabha poll does not appear to be likely before mid-2009. Party leaders are clearly voicing their support for a post-delimitation poll. This would give them a long political rope to combat any sympathy factor that might be working in favour of the BJP. More importantly, the Congress needs to get its house in order. The state unit of the party seems to be in disarray, there is no clear direction and a lack of clarity on who will captain the state team. There seem to be too many potential captains with very few gutsy stroke players or swing bowlers!

... contd.