What makes a film a hit? Not box office receipts alone

What makes a movie successful? An expert at the University of Cambridge believes that the industry and experts are looking in the wrong places when it comes to measuring the financial gain of a film - so often the bottom line when determining a 'hit'.

Legendary screenwriter William Goldman famously claimed that "nobody knows anything" when it comes to predicting smash-hit movie, but for decades movies have lived and died on the box office receipts of opening weekend.

Dr Allegre Hadida, University Lecturer in Strategy at Cambridge's Judge Business School, believes that the box-office-centered approach to a film's success runs counter to he array of platforms and factors that feed into whether a film is ultimately 'profitable', a release said.

"After reviewing 135 papers written in the past 40 years on the film industry, the most immediate conclusion is that most researchers who work on motion picture performance along with the industry itself use box office receipts as a manifestation of commercial success," Hadida said.

"This is increasingly limiting given the shelf-life of modern films, and many movies now make the majority of their revenues on ancillary markets DVD, Blu-ray, digital distribution and so on rather than in theatres.

"Viral marketing can continue to raise awareness of a film long after a major campaign has ended, people can experience cinema-like quality in their own home and stream onto a tablet while they are stuck on a train," she added.

When it comes to film performance, Hadida says such specific and immediate focus can have huge consequences in terms of creativity in Hollywood and beyond, and the willingness of the industry to take risks.

Hadida suggests that box office receipts remain the focus because they are immediate, reliable and easy to collect. This has led to industry-wide short-sightedness, in which a film's actual profitablity overall cost against overall revenue is neglected in favour of early theatrical revenue.

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