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What to watch

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  • Election ‘09: General elections will be held early in the year, which might well change the way we think about our politics. Will a stable coalition led by one of the major parties come to power? Or will the mandate be fractured enough that it opens up space for rent-seeking, competing little players? And how will that affect state elections — such as Maharashtra’s?

    The international economy: The G-20 meet in April, and there’s every chance that there are going to be major changes in how international regulators work, and a chance for India to bargain for more clout in the system. That’s something that happens a few times a century, and it’ll definitely be worth watching.

    The vacuum in Pakistan: In 2005, Musharraf was in charge. In 2006, his rule began to totter. In 2007, he was ousted — and suddenly nobody seems in charge. As Pakistan continues to struggle and export its problems to its neighbours, one question will be answered over the year: who’s in charge? President Zardari? The Army chief, Kayani? Or — scariest thought of all — nobody?

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    3G: After months of stalling, India — the world’s fastest growing mobile market — will finally grow up to 3G as bandwidth auction will held early this year.  Telecom network operators and subscribers with fancy phones have been long awaiting this third generation of tele-standards and mobile networking technology.

    The other 3G: Jammu and Kashmir has just given India its youngest chief minister, a third-generation Abdullah. What will the general elections throw up? Will the average age of the Cabinet decrease? And will the younger MPs — Sachin Pilot, Manvendra Singh — finally move into position of real power?

    Test cricket’s top spot: Australia’s dominance is at an end. And, in the first week of the New Year, we will know if they lose the number one ranking in Tests to a resurgent South Africa. Even if Australia manage a draw in the third match of the series, will they be able to hold it over the year? Test cricket will be more competitive than ever before.

    Corporate governance: In India, the promoter is king. That can’t last in a mature financial economy, and the Satyam fiasco showed that minority shareholders are finally waking up to how easily they can be exploited. Look for the debate on how to protect their rights move on from merely discussing independent directors.

    Gay rights: This could potentially be the year that homosexual activity is decriminalised in India, as the Delhi High Court judgment on Article 377 is expected early in the year.

    TV news in check: Now that the Indian News Broadcasters’ Association has sketched out guidelines to moderate media coverage, we might finally get to watch more restrained, responsible television.

    German elections: Germany’s parliamentary contest in September will pit Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union against her foreign minister in the ‘grand coalition’, Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s Social Democratic Party. But much hinges on the Left Party, which has been steadily rising, and opposes NATO and independence of the European central bank. New leadership in Europe’s largest component would change a lot of how the EU handles big issues.

    The climate in Copenhagen: This is a crucial year for climate change, as the UN conference in Copenhagen thrashes out a deal to replace the Kyoto protocol (the first period of which runs out in 2012). Substantive outcomes are urgently required, as US and other rich nations must agree to legally enforceable emissions reduction for the second period of Kyoto, and countries like India and China also display their commitment.

    Slumdog Millionaire at the Oscars: At a time when the world’s sympathies are with Mumbai, a movie all about that city’s capability to create dreams, and then make them reality, might well be a major attraction at next year’s awards shows. Unfortunately, it isn’t a completely Indian production; but it opens the door a little more for cinema about, and made in, India.

    It’s in the genes: Gene therapy’s experimental promise could at last enter the realm of ilfe-saving possibility. Two products, Advexin and Cerepro will be commercially rolled out in 2009, aimed at combating head and neck cancer and brain tumours, respectively.

    Oil prices: In 2008, oil prices moved between 150 dollars and 40 dollars a barrel, straining finances of oil exporters and importers alike, making fortunes for speculators and stressing the structures meant to moderate inflationary and deflationary pressure. The price of oil is the single number where tough politics and merciless economics intersect; whether its high or low will affect lives and livelihoods worldwide.

    Troubled Britain: As it goes into a closely-contested election, Britain is in trouble. Its financial sector is as troubled as America’s, but it makes up a much larger proportion of the UK economy. How will Gordon Brown keep his economy — and his reputation — steady? And what will that mean for the many ways in which the cash-rich UK of the past decade has led efforts to promote development goals?

    The future of the book: As digital technology strikes at the very foundation of the publishing industry, the old question rears its head — will the codex book and the printed newspaper go the way of the dodo? 2009 will see some far-reaching changes as we adapt to the electronic future, both in industry models and delivery formats.

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