In my business, I could state with certainty that a decade from now, India’s commercial energy consumption basket will be dominated by fossil fuels; that the alternatives of solar, wind, bio, nuclear and hydro will contribute only a small share to this basket; that gasoline will be the dominant transportation fuel; that the domestic consumption of oil will exceed domestic supply; that in consequence our import burden will be huge; that the bulk of our imports will come from the Middle East; that the industry will be dominated by the Indian companies with foreign companies playing a peripheral role (albeit with some establishing strong niche positions in specialities like lubricants and bitumen) and that technology will be the key factor for competitive differentiation.

I would, therefore, suggest that effort must be concentrated on mitigating the consequence of remaining a hydrocarbon dependent economy. The government is, of course, aware of this issue. But that said, I do worry that the growing imperative to contain greenhouse gas emissions and to develop renewable energy may distract people from this fundamental reality. And that we may not spend the time and resources required to securing supplies, managing demand and building partnerships. The fact is that the durability of our economic success over the next 10 years will depend on the success of these latter measures and not on the progress made in the development of cleaner alternatives.

My fundamental point is that while change is inescapable and welcome, we must not ignore the French saying that ‘the more things change, the more they remain the same’. We have all been buffeted by the nature and rapidity of change. But that has not altered our behavioural instincts and therefore the basic drivers of the environment around us. The challenge for leadership whether they be in government or business, is to remain aligned with what is stable — ‘manage the unchanging’ — at the same time that they contemplate the horizon beyond.

... contd.