This is only the beginning of a rapid increase in demand for wheat over the next few decades. Indians, whether in the south or the east, are increasingly showing a preference for wheat products. This is a long-term, decades-old trend, which the rapid economic growth and greater economic and cultural integration of the country seem to be only accelerating.

We really would not be able to depend on cheap imports where wheat is concerned. For one, this same trend towards increased consumer preference for wheat is being observed in China; consequently, despite its being the largest producer of wheat in the world, China will likely remain a large importer of wheat. The international prices for wheat are therefore going to remain high for some time to come. Two, international wheat varieties are rarely good for Indian cooking, and therefore imports of adequate varieties are difficult.

There is another long-term trend that we need to quickly catch and adjust to. Winter temperatures in the wheat belt have been a bit higher these last few years; this is only likely to continue as global warming worsens. So now we should generally be ready to change the seeds every 4-5 years.

There is a third shorter-term trend. Yields in many parts of India are not just stagnating, they are actually falling. It is also fairly clear why that is happening, and it is not related to water scarcity. For many years our farmers have been dumping various combinations of fertilisers on the HYV seeds along with other agro-chemicals. But crops don’t just require nitrogen, phosphorous or potassium. They also require a host of micronutrients. Except, many years of high- yield agriculture does strip the soil of these essential minerals and consequently there comes a point when no matter how good the seed or the other inputs, the yields are just not there. Here as well, solutions do exist and are well known to our agri-scientists. Large parts of north Indian farmland needs rejuvenation through addition of micronutrients.

... contd.