The formation of a Fourth Front by the constituents of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) — RJD of Lalu Prasad Yadav, Lok Janashakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan, and SP of Mulayam Singh Yadav — has been interpreted by many as a possible schism within UPA ranks. This has made electoral contestation tri-polar in Bihar and quadrangular in UP. Many think that the decision of the Congress to put up candidates in all the constituencies in UP and Bihar would harm the interests of both Congress and these allies, and help the BSP- BJP in UP and BJP-JD (U) in Bihar.

On a deeper analysis, however, the pointers lead us to a diametrically opposite picture. The entire Fourth Front appears to be a shrewd and subtle UPA game plan designed to increase the seats of UPA constituents in Bihar and UP. There are a couple of reasons to think that way. In the Indian scenario, a genuine political schism gets immediately reflected in the language — its tone and tenor — of the rival leaders; but Lalu, Paswan and Mulayam all continue to use reverential language for Sonia Gandhi. Secondly, these leaders consistently maintain that they are very much part of the UPA and assert UPA’s come back after elections.

Is the Fourth Front, then, mutually advantageous to the Congress and these allies? It is certainly advantageous to the Congress. One, Congress may not win more seats in UP and Bihar than before (2004), but it will certainly gain in terms of vote share and visibility. Congress is a national party and it has a responsibility to be visible in most of the constituencies — otherwise its traditional voters get bewildered and are forced to shift to other parties. Secondly, it would be a smart futuristic move and may revive Congress at the grassroots level.

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