Will the Congress decision to go alone also help the RJD-LJNP combine in Bihar? Probably yes. What may be the game plan of the UPA? Perhaps, the Congress move is not so much to make the fight triangular as to assume the role of a vote cutter. If Congress gets approximately 4-5 per cent votes in a constituency, then the BJP-JD (U) combine may be in trouble. This is because of two reasons: one, the BJP-JD (U) has to face the collective might of the RJD-LJNP; two, this almost bipolar contest would become very competitive, and the 4-5 percent votes polled by the Congress may positively affect the chances of the RJD-LJNP combine as the Congress, in all probability, would be getting the traditional upper castes votes which might be prone to shift to the BJP-JD (U) in the absence of the Congress. The Congress decision to field about 11 upper castes and the rest OBCs and Muslims may make a very substantial dent in the BJP-JD(U) vote bank. In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, Congress had a vote share of 4.46 per cent and won three seats out of four that it contested under a pre-poll alliance with the RJD and LJNP. The RJD pre-poll alliance in Bihar had polled a massive 45.1 per cent votes vis-a- vis 37 per cent of the BJP-JD (U) alliance. Though some kurmi voters are reportedly estranged with Nitish Kumar this time, his image as a development man and no-nonsense CM, and his government’s doings, may pose a serious challenge to the RJD-LJNP alliance this time. In this backdrop, Congress extricating about 5 per cent votes from BJP-JD (U) kitty may result in substantial gains for the RJD-LJNP combine.

... contd.