“The ULFA and political parties definitely have a symbiotic relationship,” says Noni Gopal Mahanta, professor of peace, conflict and human rights studies in the department of political science, Gauhati University. “The ULFA plays the most dominating role not just in the state’s politics, but also in the state’s economy,” points out Mahanta, who researched the ULFA for his PhD. “The ULFA determines to a great extent which party or combination should come to power. They want that particular combination to be in power, which subsequently goes soft on them. And when Prafulla Kumar Mahanta decided to get tough in 1998, it was the ULFA which decided he should go.”

Take the two assembly elections of 1996 and 2001. The Congress government of Hiteswar Saikia went tough on the rebels, and the ULFA almost openly appealed for the ouster of the party in 1996. But as Prafulla Mahanta decided to get tough, the result was an attack on his convoy in Guwahati. A massive crackdown that the regional party’s government carried out on the militants continues to hound it; the AGP is still in the ULFA’s bad books. There were numerous attacks on candidates and supporters of the AGP and its allies including the BJP, and the Congress was back in power. That was 2001.

“The Congress cannot crack down on the ULFA today because it had captured power in 2001 with the support of the militants,” says former chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta. “Tarun Gogoi is riding on a tiger, and cannot get down from it now,” he adds, recalling how armed rebels threatened traditional non-Congress voters in 2001.

... contd.